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BUSINESS POLICY & STRATEGIC SOLUTION- HARLEY DAVIDSON

Posted by:Prof. Lexx Posted on:Jul 7,2016

Business Policy & Strategic Solution- Harley Davidson

Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs
Large Low Demand 0.4 Do Nothing ($10)
Low Demand 0.4 Reduce Prices $50
High Demand 0.6 $70
Small Low Demand 0.4 $40
High Demand 0.6 Do Nothing $40
High Demand 0.6 Overtime $50
High Demand 0.6 Expand $55

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:
Low Demand 0.4($40)=$16
High Demand 0.6($55)=$33
Build Large:
Low Demand 0.4($50)=$20
High Demand 0.6($70)=$42

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative

Build Small: $16+$33=$49

Build Large: $20+$42=$62

Use the Statistical Terms review sheet.

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Prof. Lexx

Overview I have a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in English and minoring in History. I have worked in various fields ranging from academic research to freelance translating to editing to customer support and data entry. These include editing my old university's newspaper as well as co-leading their creative writing team; serving as a junior member in the history department's research network; publishing music and film reviews for several different magazines and webzines; and translating papers and books for numerous researchers in various languages, including Russian, Spanish, and Romanian. I am also a skilled typist, with a rate of at least 70 words per minute, and have myself digitized dozens of books and essays for both private and commercial use. I have a very strong work ethic, and make sure to prioritize the task I am given so that it is completed as quickly as possible. I am organized and disciplined, ensuring a job done professionally and efficiently.

    I have a background of 8 years in writing profession and currently pursuing also as an editor and proofreader. I have a knack for writing and thus, it was obvious to enhance my skills and serve others. Currently joined ‘Member of Association of Professional Writers and Editors’ a

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    USA